Friday, February 16, 2018
Here's some fun reading for Friday:
New Deal Demoncrat - why I'm piddling my frilly pink panties. Real nonsupervisory wages are rolling over, and when you combine that with the constant increase in consumer credit, that means a credit-constrained consumer is right around the corner, and that means a recession eventually. Thankfully it only means an old-fashioned one.
Calculated Risk - LA port traffic increases yoy in January. Which is good, it means consumption is still happening.
Polemic's Pains - the diary of a messed up market day. It's nice that someone who knows what he's talking about is being caught flat-footed by the market. Oh, and he bought gold miners.
BBC News - Navalny's name shifts snow. Why isn't Zerohedge all over this story of how people are fighting back against a corrupt government by using censorship to force public workers to do their jobs? Maybe it's because Daniel Ivandjiiski is a paid stooge of Vladimir Putin?
This song is apparently about meth. It also went top-10 for 14 weeks.
Also, do you remember Hanson's "Mmm Bop"?
Cos that was a big hit right before this came out. And though it's structurally a lot more simple than this one, it does darn well kinda hit the exact same musical themes. I mean, you could do a mashup of the two.
Just one of them weird things.
Wednesday, February 14, 2018
I wonder why Zerohedge isn't all over this story about the infringement of people's free speech rights, the banning of websites for critical content, and yadda yadda wharrgarbl?
BBC News - Russia bans YouTube and Instagram. Quote:
YouTube and Instagram face being blocked by Russian internet service providers as a result of a standoff between one of the country's richest businessmen and an opposition leader.
Russia's internet censor blacklisted material on both services after a court ruled that it violated billionaire Oleg Deripaska's privacy rights.
My god! What kind of horrible things were people posting about this fine upstanding Nazi?
Mr Navalny's Anti-corruption Foundation posted a video to YouTube last Thursday in which he presented footage that allegedly showed Mr Deripaska meeting Russia's deputy prime minister Sergei Prikhodko aboard a yacht.
The material was said to have been sourced from a woman's Instagram account, where it had been posted in 2016.
Mr Navalny also uploaded a photo of the "secret meeting" alongside a post detailing corruption claims, to his own Instagram account.
The next day, Mr Deripaska obtained a court order demanding the removal of 14 Instagram posts and seven YouTube clips.
And on Saturday, the government's internet watchdog Roskomnadzor issued the two tech platforms a take-down notice giving them three business days to comply.
Google subsequently wrote to Mr Navalny's team saying it might be forced to block the videos.
But to date, neither it nor Facebook has censored the material.
And given Zerohedge is a paid part of the Russian anti-west disinfo campaign, you'd damn well expect they'd never write an article on this. Right?
It's amazing how perfectly $VIX intraday is governed by the EMA(10) during a fear spike, like from January 16th to today, and how perfectly it breaks thru the EMA(10) the minute fear subsides.
Too bad there's no ETF to trade this sort of behaviour:
I mean okay there was an ETF, but now some fuckstick trader has wiped it out.
Tuesday, February 13, 2018
Polemic's Pains said he's bought into the market, with a close trailing stop.
Therefore, I assume everyone has done this.
And, I assume anyone with half a brain knows everyone has done this.
Therefore, I assume someone is going to run the stops, probably today.
Therefore, I'm not going to get worried when this market pukes 5% with an empty book.
Monday, February 12, 2018
OMG! Sell everything! here's why!:
Calculated Risk - record port traffic at Long Beach in Jan 2018. The consumer is desperate to buy! Therefore sell everything, stocks are worthless!
Calculated Risk - best January ever for intermodal. OMG! Sell sell sell!
Bonddad - interest rates haven't done anything. OMG! There are interest rates! Sell sell sell!
Bonddad - quit being pussies, you fucking pussies. Couldn't have said it better myself.
Polemics Pains - every fucking stupid reason for the dump. OMG there are reasons! Sell sell sell!
Friday, February 9, 2018
Wednesday, February 7, 2018
So, after the panic has apparently subsided, or at least gone into a short-term lull (hard to tell with volumes the way they are), let's try and puzzle out what broke.
Obviously the $VIX system broke. XIV is dead, and that means that a major market mover of the front 2 months in the $VIX futures option market has died.
$VIX futures are a signal for bots. I mean hell, I'd program a bot with a $VIX futures input. But the signal today means something completely different than what it meant a week ago, because XIV is no longer trading the front 2 months. That is a really big change; of course, eventually the big boys can switch to implementing in-house front-month CBOE $VIX futures strategies to replace the XIV mechanism they had been outsourcing to Suisse.
So the US equity market mechanism won't fully recover until all the bots are reprogrammed to take into account the change in $VIX futures participation.
Bitcoin? Yes, that broke too, but who fucking cares? I cannot see why any serious market participant would buy or sell based on the goings on in an OTC Ponzi scheme, which is what bitcoin is. That won't move pensions, and it won't move Goldman's prop desk unless they're morons.
US economy? Nothing wrong with it right now. The Fed even under Powell won't raise rates so high that they kill investment, and investment ultimately is what drives the economic cycle.
Do stocks need to come down to a lower P/E for prices to be sustainable? Maybe, but if so, why aren't Republicans still puking stocks today? I don't think that asset inflation has suddenly stopped; in fact, giving more income to the working class through minimum wage raises will actually provide a hell of a lot of support to consumption at the bottom end of the Keynesian cross. Earnings growth may actually come, though unfortunately the timing of that is different than it's ever been before because the bourgeois rentier sector has already had their own recovery.
Yabut, if interest rates keep rising, won't that hurt anyone? Well, rising US interest rates should kill emerging markets, if the past is any indication. They haven't been murdered yet, despite the US having gone into a bull market. Maybe a year or two of higher rates will bring about some major crisis in EMs, which this time around will kill the world economy much worse than it ever did before. But for now, all is swell.
It's hard to tell what to make of the lull that's seized the market by noon today, except perhaps that everyone is done doing whatever they wanted to do and are now busy retooling the bot army.
Tuesday, February 6, 2018
Just heard on CBC:
"Stock markets around the world are in free-fall. Are we headed for a correction? Tonight on The National!"
Because the story has now made it to CBC, which used to be a decent news service but now has become a laughingstock in Canadian news, with a stated policy of ensuring every radio news broadcast has at least one story on fucking native people that nobody cares about, I hereby call the bottom in the S&P.
at 4:40 PM